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ACG Finals Predictions and Analysis
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01-21-2015, 07:25 AM #1
Fordus Still n00b
Status: Offline Posts:170 Threads:27 Joined:Apr 2014
So here we are, the last two teams standing. Can't say it's a surprise for most people, as CaDF and V have been the two most dominant squads all season. What is surprising, however, is who the favorite is: Violent.

If you look back to the pre-season or even the early week power rankings and articles, pretty much everyone figured that CaDF had this in the bag. Maybe many still do. I do think that the series could go either way, and won't be shocked by either possible result--but I consider Violent the favorites, and at even money would predict them to win. Let's look at why.

There are two ways to make a prediction about this series. The first is a mental determination looking at the teams and players on paper, and the second is by looking at past results.

If you look at the players on paper, Violent appears to have a slight edge. Why? Yes, CaDF boasts the largely agreed upon best player in the game, Sebek. They also have the largely agreed best teamwork in the game. By teamwork I mean rapes and rotations. Everyone knows this. They know CaDF's strengths, and what to do to best counteract them.

First, you don't play them 4v4. In 4v4 play, rapes and rotations play a larger role than 3v3 (they're still important, but 1v1 skill is weighted more heavily the less players in the game). Violent knows this and will elect to play 3v3. Second, you don't play them in GO. GO is the map that most players, especially older players like CaDF, are most familiar with--which allows the most opportunity to leverage their teamwork. Third, a map like GO is what plays to Sebek's strengths. He's the best long range player in the game as well as the best player in the open. GO allows for plenty of long range and open range combat. In a map like Challenge, even though it's sizeable, it's still not as big as GO, and it has more chokepoints. In a map with more chokepoints, it is easier for a lesser skilled player to equalize a stronger player's advantage. This should not be surprising: if an enemy is going to outplay you in the open every time, you simply stay by the cover of a wall as much as possible. In a map with few walls and chokepoints, you often have to sacrifice position, territory, or pressure in order to do this. The more walls and chokepoints that a map has, the more this is not the case.

Looking at the rest of the players, Tobiashi has been lackluster for the past couple of months. Not that he's bad, but looking back to the early in the season, I can't believe I even considered the possibility of him being a stronger player than Sebek. Maybe I was just rusty, or maybe he has just been on a cold streak lately, but while he is solid enough--he has not been the dominant player that people make him out to be.

Parrotman has been displaying a large degree of rust to me lately--moreso than I've probably ever seen of him. Not that he hasn't earned a lifelong respect, the guy has been a top10 or top5 player for 10 or15 years now, probably the longest stretch of any player in the game's history with the exception of maybe Nano. I question his ability in his current form to hang with Violent 1v1, but knowing Parrot he might very well prove me wrong and step up for the big games like he has in the past. At the moment though, I would be inclined to start Astrok over him.

With Violent, you have four very strong, very solid pilots in Faur, Terr0r, Genocide, and Fight3r. Not only are they active and skilled, but they're hungry for a title. If I were to rank all of the finals players, I would go

1) Sebek - compared to all the other players in this series, he has the most areas in which he excels in, and also the fewest weaknesses
2) Faur - His long range game is solid, and is short range game is very very good (while he is not as explosive as Tobiashi, he is also much more consistently difficult)
3) Terr0r - He has moments where his play would appear to rival Sebek's, but he's inconsistent. I think some areas of his game are stronger than Faur's, but he also has some bigger weaknesses.
4) Genocide - he's like terr0r on steroids. At times, Geno might be the single hardest opponent for me to fight on all of armor critical. But he gets impatient/distracted at times. If consistency was not a factor, I would probably rank Geno #2.
5) Tobiashi - yeah, I think the above 3 V players are better than him. He's certainly good, but not as sharp as Violent's players. I think a lot of his success depends upon him having a good, smart supporting cast which he has always had in CaDF, but in 3v3 it's less weighted.
6) fight3r - I think his long range / fragging game is actually more solid than Tobiashi's, but he's a little too passive at times.
7) Astrok - I think he's underrated...I've seen him play quite well. I do think his strengths are more suited to 4v4, and consistency is a bit of an issue/factor.
8) Parrotman - Already described above why I feel Parrot doesn't have the edge at the moment he's always enjoyed, but he's still capable of making huge plays; he has always been one of the most clutch players.

Now, with players of this caliber, the skill gap is not very large. I think Sebek is a clear tier above the rest, and then it is all very close, and it gradually drops off when you get to fight3r/astrok/parrot. So CaDF has the top and bottom ends of the spectrum, with V in the middle. Because I think the skill gap drops off more at the bottom than in any other part of the curve, on paper I view Violent has having the slight overall edge.

Finally, looking at past results: this gets tricky. Violent stomped DC, but DC did play quite poorly. CaDF barely beat LN, and LN did play their hearts out. Regardless of who would be the favorite between DC and LN, I think they are more or less comparable at the moment in terms of skill, and Violent had a much stronger performance over DC than CaDF vs. LN. Like I said though; it's tricky. The map plays a big role in the results of the contest; if CaDF had played LN in GO and Challenge, it might've looked more like the V/DC series. Likewise, if V played DC in stank, it might've looked more like the CaDF/LN series. Because of this, the only meaningful past results I can use is the tiebreaker game that CaDF and Violent already played, which was a 3v3 in Challenge and V won fairly convincingly. Not that they blew CaDF out of the water, but at no time did things look grim for V.

In conclusion, I put violent at a 70% to 30% favorite to win the series.

01-21-2015, 07:40 AM #2
Faur Still n00b
Status: Offline Posts:180 Threads:17 Joined:Apr 2014
Pretty decent predictions, finally someone put an effort into it, thx.

01-21-2015, 10:43 AM #3
Predator Still n00b
Status: Offline Posts:110 Threads:15 Joined:Apr 2014
Let's bet DC's and LN's winnings on the V - CaDF finals

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